Risk

Telling one’s own passion from her parents’ dreams could be tricky. Watching Lang Lang on TV and regretting not pursuing the career could be the guilt of not matching a parent’s expectations from early childhood. Nevertheless, contrary to what a $300 an hour therapist might say, digging into childhood memories to find something wrong would be a worthless effort. Secretly wanting to become a pianist becomes hardwired to a personality long ago. Unless they make you a Dexter-ish serial killer, your childhood memories will be just fine as they are. But there is value in knowing what one wants based on her life experience. That passion may very well be authentic and worth to pursue because it would be one’s own with her all dedication for it.

As discussed in Keeping Things in the Right Direction, fundamental decisions put things in motion for long stretches of time and generate unpredictable outcomes. It is important to choose the right passion for the potentials at hand instead of assuming some hope is innate knowledge and is there for “a reason”! The world is knowable through senses, not through wishes.

Knowing which passion is authentic should be about how one feels. An urge to appease, a feeling of duty to someone unidentified, or anything that needs to be verified somewhere other than the self would often not be an authentic passion. If it belongs to you, it wouldn’t need peer review to feel right.

Now that we can choose a passion to follow, and we have a framework to put it through by reason, all there should be following up what happens next.

It wouldn’t be the case. One invests self into her passions. There wouldn’t be any detached observation of what happens. It better goes right. Risks must be managed.

Life’s essence is aggression. Taking a shower destroys millions of tiny little living things. A vegan’s eating vegetables is a violent act to extract the stored energy within the food. Sending a robot on Mars is aggression by casting, shaping and throwing tons of material to a point millions of miles away. We can be peaceful by not directing aggression to fellow humans and be smart by managing our environment, but we can’t exist without aggression. So, following a plan requires an adequate aggression. Aggression is ok if it is not directed at people but, still, they will have their plans too. What if achieving your plans ruins someone else’s?

If your plan is not original, you would be taking a slice from a cake someone else has already made. Someone who decides to be a winch operator would be entering a labor market to get some share from others. Ideally, the new operator enters the labor market at a time of economic growth. Because there are more constructions to supply demand, the new winch operator’s taking a new job would not have an immediate effect on the other operators’ income. It would, when the economic growth period ends and businesses shrunk, but then the winch operator would be a part of the guild.

If it is not a growth period in the market you target with your plan, your success would mean an immediate loss for one or more of the others. Therefore, you face all kinds of risks of failure because others would be making efforts in hope to see it happens. That is, aggression would then be directed at people instead of things.

Battling in such circumstances require the known tools of intelligence gathering, gossiping, diversions, forming alliances by exchanging favors, and the like. A combination of reason and good luck could bring victory. A highly intelligent entrant to an existing market could even win against all others in their own game. Cornelius “Commodore” Vanderbilt was a monument of such victories. If one thinks they have what it takes, there would be no reason they shouldn’t try, as long as they agree they would become what they do and it wouldn’t be a happy experience.

The other and peaceful way of pursuing a plan requires having an original plan. A plan toward creating new business. That makes everyone happy. Most of all, the government. A new business in this sense is a new idea of doing things. It meets with a new demand in addition to all existing markets. That means the government can circulate more money. You would be their champion. In fact, you would be everybody’s champion. You would be making everybody wealthier. You wouldn’t see any obstacles around.

One risk of introducing new ideas is having a bad new idea. A bad idea is easy to detect. If one claims to invent the time machine and the machine doesn’t make time travels, that would be all. But the other risk is a true nightmare: Having a good new idea that is incompatible.

Leonardo Bonacci (known as Fibonacci) introduced the positional decimal numeric system in Europe in the 12th century. It is the system everybody uses now: Numbers from zero to nine and their place values. It was better than everything else known in Europe at the time. It offered endless benefits to all about mathematics, accounting, businesses, governance. And mathematicians in Fibonacci’s time understood it. They all attested. Fibonacci shouldn’t have seen any obstacles on his way to recognition as the greatest intellectual of his time.

However, his system was incompatible with how people conducted business. It wasn’t just about their liking the Roman numerals. One should look at the medieval clock face to understand what the problem was. The twelve hours on the medieval clock dial are in Roman numerals. But four is not the correct Roman IV. It is IIII. That is often explained as the common people got confused between IV and V, so they made it simple by adding a finger to three and writing IIII for four. Simple, and folk-friendly.

But the same folks didn’t seem to have a problem with reading IX, X, and XI on the same clock dial. The problem was not about telling IV from V. It seems to had been about making something universal only after compromise.

Whatever the reasons may be, people and the governments liked their much less useful Roman numerals than Fibonacci’s decimal system. It took four centuries for them to agree on the uncompromising new numerals and place values. By the 16th century, the modern numbers from zero to nine took their universal place in Europe. Fibonacci wasn’t there to see his success. He is now recognized as the greatest mathematician of his time.

Concerning your ideas, it is better to focus on those you can demonstrate as working, so you avoid failure from the start. Then an idea should better be new if you want to avoid risks of battles to take a slice of a cake someone else made. You don’t have to. But the choice is there. Finally, if you have a good new idea, it must be compatible with other things. Incompatible good ideas can be frustrating, to say the least.

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